Goldman Sachs said on Wednesday that copper shipments into the United States are expected to accelerate in the coming weeks following U.S. President Donald Trump’s announcement of a 50% tariff on imported copper.

Trump said on Tuesday he would announce a 50% tariff on copper, sending U.S. Comex copper futures up more than 12% to a record high. [MET/L]

U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said shortly afterwards the copper tariffs would likely be in place by the end of July or August 1.

“We change our baseline to a 50% tariff on U.S. copper imports from 25% previously. We keep our long Dec-25 COMEX-LME arbitrage trade recommendation open,” the investment bank said in a note.

The bank maintains its December 2025 London Metal Exchange (LME) copper price forecast at $9,700, but now sees reduced risk that the price rises above $10,000 in the third quarter.

The bank expects only modest sequential declines in the LME copper price, as tight conditions persist in markets outside the U.S., and the drawdown in U.S. inventories, along with easing market tightness elsewhere, is expected to unfold gradually from late third quarter 2025 onward.

Meanwhile, Citi also expects the United States to confirm a 50% copper import tariff under Section 232 within weeks, with implementation expected within 30 days.

“We think this is a watershed moment for the copper market in 2025 as imminent flagged tariff implementation should abruptly close the window for further significant US-bound copper shipments (possibly for the rest of 2025),” Citi said.

Citi added that this will trigger a decline in copper prices outside the U.S., forecasting a pullback to $8,800 per ton over the next three months.

Benchmark copper on the LME was trading at $9,609 a metric ton by 0752 GMT.