A new global smartphone survey from Morgan Stanley points to record iPhone upgrade intent in 2026, with analyst Erik Woodring saying in a note Monday that the results “at first blush” look positive but mask a tougher year ahead for the broader market.

The AlphaWise survey shows next-12-month upgrade rates in the U.S. and China hitting “all-time highs,” which implies replacement cycles “accelerate to a 10-year low.” 

However, Woodring writes that Apple is “the only major global smartphone vendor expected to gain share in 2026,” driven by “new and advanced features,” stronger device quality and broad upgrade eligibility. 

He adds that iPhone switching rates are set to reach a 5-year high, underscoring the company’s relative strength.

By contrast, Android vendors face what Morgan Stanley calls “unprecedented memory cost inflation” that is likely to push device prices higher and “significantly dampen smartphone market demand.” 

The bank says lower brand loyalty and greater price sensitivity will leave Android “more vulnerable vs Apple.”

As a result, Morgan Stanley cuts its 2026 global smartphone shipment forecast to 1.1 billion units, down from 1.3 billion previously, or -13% year-on-year. 

It now expects Android shipments to fall 15% year over year, compared with just a 2% decline for Apple.