Goldman Sachs maintained its forecast for gold prices to reach $5,400 per troy ounce by the end of 2026, but the bank flagged some near-term downside risks, citing vulnerability to further liquidation amid ongoing geopolitical tensions and potential corrections in bond and equity markets.

“We view near-term risks to our gold price forecast as skewed to the downside, as gold remains vulnerable to further liquidation should Hormuz disruptions persist and bond-or equities correct further,” Goldman strategists Lina Thomas and Daan Struyven said in a note. 

Central bank demand remains key to Goldman’s bullish structural view. The bank expects central banks to average 60 tonnes of gold purchases per month through 2026, though its nowcast showed a sharp drop to just 2 tonnes in February — likely a temporary pause driven by extreme price volatility, the strategists said.

A survey of 29 central banks conducted at Goldman’s central bank conference on April 23 found that around 70% expect global gold reserves to rise over the next 12 months, with roughly 25% expecting them to remain flat.

The same survey showed that about 70% of respondents expect gold prices to settle above $5,000 per troy ounce in one year. The Bank of England in London was the most preferred storage location for any new gold purchases, with domestic storage coming in second.

Goldman’s base case assumes no additional private sector liquidation of gold and no further private sector diversification beyond what a modest Federal Reserve easing cycle would bring. The bank’s economists expect 50 basis points of Fed cuts, which would provide a tailwind for prices.

Over the medium term, strategists said risks are skewed to the upside “if the Iran episode— together with broader geopolitical developments (e.g., Greenland, Venezuela)—were to accelerate diversification into gold and to weigh on perceptions of Western fiscal sustainability.”